The candidate’s smile, as measured by Microsoft Azure, increased the vote share by 1.5 to 2.6%p. The size and statistical significance of the smile effect varied depending on the electoral competitiveness and number of candidates.
The more representatives spent, particularly in party competition and election-related categories, the higher was their chance of being re-elected. Furthermore, this effect was more prominent among incumbents whose parties held hegemonic dominance in their districts, yielding lesser between-party electoral race but closer within-party race in primaries.
By testing the ‘vote-against model’ on the 2017 French presidential election data, this paper shows that the French electorate weighed the psychological losses more than gains in their final vote decision. Furthermore, this paper finds that the vote-against model explains and predicts the French electorate’s voting behavior better than the proximity model.